Geopolitics will take center stage for Indian crude buyers in 2025. The country has grown reliant on Russian barrels sold at a discount thanks to a US-enforced price cap that was put in place after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. But as the India-Russia business relationship has deepened, those discounts are shrinking — just as Indian crude demand is set to ramp up. The return of US President Donald Trump this month brings added uncertainty to the future of Russian crude prices.
